The 6-Month Outlook: Navigating Natural Gas and Electricity Trends for Multi-Site Brands

If you're managing energy costs across multiple restaurant or retail locations, you already know that budgeting for utilities feels a bit like predicting the weather six months out. Sometimes you nail it. Sometimes you're left scrambling.

As we move into the first half of 2026, the energy landscape is serving up a mixed plate. On one hand, gasoline and crude oil prices are trending downward, great news if you're managing delivery fleets or logistics. On the other hand, electricity costs are climbing, and natural gas? Well, it's complicated.

Let's break down what's actually happening in the energy markets over the next six months and, more importantly, what you can do about it to protect your margins.

The Good News: Fuel Costs Are Easing Up

First, let's talk about the bright spot. If your multi-site operation relies on transportation, whether that's moving supplies between locations or running a delivery program, you're catching a break. Crude oil prices have softened, and gasoline is following suit.

For restaurants and retail brands with significant logistics operations, this translates to real savings. Lower fuel costs mean your distribution expenses are more predictable, and you might even find some breathing room in your transportation budget.

But here's the catch: those savings at the pump aren't showing up on your electricity bill. In fact, it's quite the opposite.

Electricity Prices: The Upward Climb Continues

Here's where things get a little uncomfortable. The national average electricity price is projected to hit around 18 cents per kilowatt hour in 2026, that's roughly a 37% increase compared to 2020 levels. And if you're operating in certain markets, you might be feeling that pinch even more acutely.

So what's driving this increase? A few factors are converging:

Data center demand is exploding. You've probably heard about the AI boom, and all those servers need massive amounts of power. Data centers are creating localized strain on power grids, particularly in regions like ERCOT (that's Texas, for those keeping track). This increased demand puts upward pressure on electricity prices for everyone sharing that grid, including your stores and restaurants.

Infrastructure investments are adding up. Utilities are pouring money into grid upgrades and renewable energy transitions. Those costs get passed along to commercial customers like you.

Peak demand periods are intensifying. As we head into summer 2026, expect air conditioning loads to spike. Power sector natural gas burn typically rebounds during these months, which can further pressure prices.

For multi-site brands, this means your electricity line item is likely to grow over the next six months, unless you take proactive steps to manage consumption. If you haven't already, now might be the time to conduct an energy audit across your locations to identify where you're losing money.

Natural Gas: A Window of Opportunity?

Natural gas presents an interesting picture for the first half of 2026. The EIA forecasts Henry Hub spot prices will average just under $3.50 per MMBtu for the year, about 2% lower than 2025 levels. But those averages can be deceiving.

Here's what the pattern typically looks like:

• February-March: Prices tend to hit their seasonal bottom

• Spring: An aggressive price rally often follows as markets anticipate summer demand

• Summer: Cooling demand drives power sector natural gas consumption back up

If your locations rely heavily on natural gas for cooking, heating, or other operations, early 2026 presents a potential window for locking in contracts before that spring rally kicks in. Ample supply and inventories above five-year averages are keeping prices moderate in the near term, but that won't last forever.

The wildcard? LNG export demand. U.S. LNG export capacity is expanding from 17 billion cubic feet per day to nearly 20 Bcf/d by 2026. As more natural gas gets shipped overseas, domestic prices could face upward pressure later in the year.

Why This Matters for Multi-Site Operators

Running a single location is challenging enough. Managing energy costs across 10, 50, or 200+ sites? That's a whole different ballgame.

Here's the reality: a 5% increase in electricity costs might seem manageable at one store. But multiply that across your entire portfolio, and suddenly you're looking at a significant hit to your bottom line. For multi-site restaurant and retail brands, energy is often one of the top three controllable expenses, right up there with labor and food costs.

The brands that thrive in volatile energy markets aren't the ones hoping prices will come back down. They're the ones actively managing consumption, negotiating smarter contracts, and investing in efficiency measures that compound savings across every location.

Actionable Strategies for the Next 6 Months

Alright, enough doom and gloom. Let's talk about what you can actually do to navigate these trends and protect your margins.

1. Review Your Procurement Strategy

If you're not already working with an energy consultant or broker, now's the time to explore your options. Early 2026's relatively moderate natural gas prices present an opportunity to lock in favorable rates before potential spring increases.

For electricity, consider whether fixed-rate contracts make sense for your portfolio, or whether a blended approach gives you more flexibility. The right answer depends on your risk tolerance and the markets you operate in.

2. Double Down on Peak Demand Management

Electricity prices aren't just about how much you use: they're about when you use it. Managing energy during peak hours can significantly reduce demand charges, which often account for 30-50% of a commercial electricity bill.

Simple strategies like staggering equipment startups, pre-cooling before peak periods, and training staff on energy-conscious behaviors can add up to meaningful savings across your portfolio.

3. Prioritize HVAC Maintenance

Your HVAC system is likely your biggest energy consumer, and a poorly maintained system is essentially a money pit. Regular HVAC maintenance ensures your equipment runs efficiently, extends its lifespan, and prevents those costly emergency repairs that always seem to happen at the worst possible time.

4. Implement Energy Benchmarking

You can't manage what you don't measure. Energy benchmarking allows you to compare performance across locations, identify outliers, and prioritize efficiency investments where they'll have the biggest impact.

Which locations are your energy hogs? Which ones are running lean? Benchmarking gives you the data to answer those questions and take targeted action.

5. Consider an Energy Management System

For multi-site brands serious about controlling costs, an intelligent energy management system can be a game-changer. These systems provide real-time visibility into consumption patterns, automate efficiency measures, and help you identify problems before they show up on your utility bill.

The upfront investment pays for itself when you're managing dozens or hundreds of locations.

Looking Ahead: The Second Half of 2026 and Beyond

While this post focuses on the next six months, it's worth noting that the trends driving energy costs aren't going away. Data center demand will continue growing. The grid will continue evolving. And energy will remain a significant: and volatile: expense for multi-site operators.

The good news? Solar capacity is expanding rapidly, with 69 GW of new solar expected to come online in 2026. This growth in renewable generation provides some cost stability and creates opportunities for brands interested in renewable energy procurement strategies.

The operators who build robust energy management practices now will be better positioned to weather whatever the market throws at them in the years ahead.

Ready to Take Control of Your Energy Costs?

Navigating energy markets doesn't have to feel like guesswork. With the right data, the right strategy, and the right partners, you can turn energy from an unpredictable expense into a manageable: and even competitive: advantage.

If you're ready to get serious about energy management across your multi-site portfolio, we'd love to help. We work with restaurant and retail brands every day to implement practical, data-driven solutions that protect margins and support growth.

Because in a market where electricity prices are climbing and every dollar counts, hoping for the best just isn't a strategy.